This coming week will be fire.

CPI data for May is released on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday we get the FOMC meeting culminating with the rate hike decision. All while the market is flooded by news from the SEC vs Binance & Coinbase & Crypto war.

It’s going to be ***extremely **volatile.

This is already the fastest and most aggressive hiking cycle in history. 20 hikes off 25bps in just a little over a year. It’s unprecedented.

I see 3 options from here.

OPTION I: Fed pauses. Bitcoin pushes higher through June before the next drop.

OPTION II: FED hikes 25bps and announces the pause. Bitcoin drops at 24k.

OPTION II: FED hikes 25bps and announces more hikes on the horizon. Bitcoin could nuke to 23k. Possibly even 21k.

Anything is possible.

YET.

I’m expecting Jerome to continue hiking. Why ? Because Powell has been doing what he said he would be doing for the past year. The market just didn’t believe him and still doubts he will continue to stick to his guns. A year later, FED still hiking. Inflation is their top priority.

What’s next ? If this happens market could blow up really badly. In the best case scenario we could see a capitulation already, but I doubt it will happen so fast.

• *Most likely Bitcoin will pullback to 24k **and continue the max pain scenario to the downside. The slow bleed. By dumping the market slowly many will simply lose interest and abandon the market. We all want a final capitulation event and the big players know it. Therefore, I really doubt it will happen so fast.

At 24k we have a major confluence zone. If price finds some kind of demand in there I will be looking for longs. Not accumulating. Only short term positions.

My only interest is a possible short position from 27K next days or so. Back down to 24k once FED hikes. Then a long from 24.4-24.8k back to 26k in case the sell off is not strong enough.

If you have any questions, let me know!